in the past, compared to the sub date, not as many people bought the (previous) SD.
it has always been more expensive and top heavier, compared to the sub date.
the GMT2 i am sure, has traditionally been popular, when compared to the SD. it is a more functional and useful watch (2 additional time zones for day to use use) compared to the SD.
i believe there is much demand for coloured GMT2Cs - seeing that the steel pepsi is still unavailable and that no coke model has been announced yet, this may spillover to the other 2 existing steel models for now, probably a slight preference for the blue/black as it's newer to market and more colourful.
given that there are splashes of colour to the GMT2's ceramic bezel (blue/black and red/blue), PCL, and the price of the watch, plus the buyer profile, it is likely a "subdued" look of the SD will be less attractive to most buyers and flippers.
if the pepsi (and perhaps the coke?) will eventually be released in steel, it will be over the next few years and unlikely to be all done at the same time in different metals/combinations.
the 116710LN is a very different watch compared to the new SD. it's much shinier and eye catching. if you want something flashy, and comparably more affordable, that's probably the right path to take. few professional divers will buy the new SD for work, but most people will travel/have friends and family that are based overseas. for underwater use, 100m is sufficient for recreational scuba diving, even. (most won't recommend it, but i've never had problems scuba diving with 100m rolex watches)
so the SD prices will likely become stable, especially on the pre-owned market, much sooner than the GMT2c. when is that? i don't know.
the saving grace of the SD is... its case shape and niche. it retains most of the lines collectors/rolex aficionados are familiar with and probably quietly prefer. people who buy it will unlikely make up a big "fashion" or "flipping" segment (you get the same look with a sub or sub date!). people who buy it (at current markup over the sub) will likely be keeping it for some time to come - if you buy when it first gets released, the price is usually at its cheapest. eg. buying 116710LN when it first got released in 2007 vs 2014 (or 116713 in 2006 vs 2014).
the prices of the previous SD in singapore is quite strong (?)/high - whether because of its perceived "rarity" or not, so it might be likely the new one will stay that way. if you like it for what it is, and you can get it under good terms, go for it. in the short term, retail prices (and to an extent, pre-owned prices) will only keep going up.
how rolex plans to refresh the existing/release the rest of its line up, or whether they intend to release the new SD in other flavours, we'll never know. don't over think it. if you like one more than the other, just buy that one.
if you are not sure, just flip a coin.
if you want to invest, then you should buy something like stocks that pay dividends... preferably in a well established and stable company.
"watch/horology investments" are usually not through watches that are common and easily obtained.
the prices of watches locally have, to an extent, been manipulated or at least affected by the different players that now make up a big part of the local marketplace.
it would be remiss of me if i did not at least state that i think the prices of the old SD is higher (relative to the seller's stated condition of the watch) in singapore compared to other regions/countries.
(this is also very true for most 16710 available for sale on the local market, but other effects are at play there)
whether this higher price is something that can be sustained in the long term, it is difficult to say. the world is your (and my) marketplace. a friend of mine recently bought a full box set M serial unpolished SD for SGD$6.1k equivalent from a popular brick and mortar shop in UK because he could not find something at "normal" prices on local forums.
thus SDs with an asking price of 7-8k+ (or watch only asking 6k+)... should not be the only price reference when looking back/forwards.
“Watches, no matter how much they cost, are better at telling time than making a person happy.†- Thomas J. Stanley
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