modern Rolex prices in future?

[exxondus]

I have been wondering with regard to the saying that rolex prices increase with age (let's not take inflation into consideration there)

I noticed that the vintage models are able to fetch much higher prices now then when they were sold. However for modern ones, e.g. GMTIIc, SD, SDDS, DDII, etc, the prices will keep falling untill a certain level and remain more or less there.

I cant look into the future, but I noticed for some reason, this trend of rolex prices increasing in the future is gg to die off real soon, if it have not yet. Reason due to mass production and more so in recent years for modern Rolex, and no substantial variations of dials, etc that makes them collectable.

I have a feeling that Rolex knows about the resale values of their watches and in order to tackle this situation, they have changed their strategy and start to produce based on demand. I mean, why let others reap profits when they can sell more and earn more?

Well, just my analysis after looking at a few models, esp the GMTIIc in 2007 vs now. Its only like 2 years but with the continuous production of same models (just different series), the value will in no way increase for the next 10-20 years, unlike vintage or other models with slight variations in their dials.

Some may argue that for 20-30 years, prices will def increase or remain. Personally, I think not really possible with the current released models.

just sharing my thoughs, don flame me hor.

[Darkangel]

Now's the time to buy pre 1970s pieces hehee...



We NEVER know

[Oceanklassik]

Seriously the future is too far to predict. Somehow, I feel that with the current prices these watches are being sold (high price), it is not surprising that there is not much of profit at all in the near future.

[triton]

modern rolex say the 16710 (GMT Master II) will probably have to wait for 30 years before one can see the price like what is a 5513 now.

take for example a 6694 bought in 1980 was like in the hundreds. now it is selling for anywhere between 1500-2200. so it takes like 30 years for the price to multiply by 3 times.

my explorer II bought in 1990 was 3000. now how much is it commanding? probably about 4500. that is less than twice after 20 years. why? because production has increased, so it brings us back to economics.

[jonolau]

Interesting topic. In other words, when your Rollie appreciates over the years, you've made a "premium".

What is this premium? It is the difference between the "actual cost" of the watch and its "perceived value" at this point in time.

What is this perceived value? The way I've observed the market:

1. It's created by supply and demand. Walking into a few ADs locally, I often hear them tell me that they're "Out of stock" of a certain Rolex model. But if you want one, they can hunt around to locate one piece for you. A ready buyer would be put into a heightened sense of urgency, and may abandon all thoughts of bargaining just to get hold of one.

2. Maintaining market prices. Rolex is one of the few brands I know that don't offer huge discounts or sometimes none. And they definitely don't hold fire sales. For example, some brands offer discounts of up to 70% just to clear off old stocks to make way for newer models. This not only cheapens the brand, but also irks earlier buyers and bottoms out the value of their watches.

3. Consistent image. How many brands are able to use the same model name(s) and case aesthetics over decades with only variations in movements, bezel colours, dial colours? Rolex and perhaps AP to a certain extent with their basic Royal Oak. For example, someone who has bought earlier models of GMT Master II like it initially for it's sporty look, and when a newer model comes out like the IIc, there's a higher chance this group will upgrade or add it to their collection because they like the look, but cannot retrofit the new style bracelet or bezel onto the old model. This is very much like Toyota with their Corolla. Why try to fix something when it's not broken?

4. Highly recognizable image and desireability. Very simple: go ask any neighbourhood Ah Pek or Auntie what watch they would really like to get if they are given a choice? Chances are it will be a Rolex, and it'll be a chance in a million to hear brands like Chopard, Zenith or Audemars Piguet pop up. It's things like that which prop up the brand and it's subsequent value in the second hand market. Same thing goes for the sports models albeit a different aspiring crowd.

5. Controlling the resale market. This topic is really open to the floor. There are many ways of controlling the market and is dependent on many variables. One would be collaboration of traders. Then another (which I cannot verify yet) is that certain major brand names actually go out to the market to mop up second hand models in times of glut to prevent a crash, and release them slowly over time as markets recover. Sounds far-fetched, but could be plausible.

[Kohky26]

Now's the time to buy pre 1970s pieces hehee...



We NEVER know

Agreed Fully! Its beautiful...those vintage rolex!!! Cheers! ;-)