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RBS May Post $41 Billion Loss; Stock Price Plunges 71%

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  • RBS May Post $41 Billion Loss; Stock Price Plunges 71%

    an. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc said it may post a loss of as much as 28 billion pounds ($41 billion), the biggest ever reported by a U.K. company, as the credit crisis worsens. The stock slumped as much as 71 percent.

    Britain’s biggest government-controlled bank may post a full-year loss before exceptional goodwill impairments of as much as 8 billion pounds, Edinburgh-based RBS said in a statement today. In addition, the bank may write down the value of past acquisitions by as much as 20 billion pounds.

    The loss would eclipse Vodafone Group Plc’s 22 billion- pound net loss in 2006. RBS has been crippled by its acquisition of ABN Amro Holding NV’s investment banking assets three months before the credit crisis began, a takeover Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling today called “disastrous.” The Treasury said today it may raise its stake in RBS as it announced the second British bank rescue in three months.

    “I am angry at the Royal Bank of Scotland and what has happened,” Prime Minister Gordon Brown told reporters in London today. The bank took “irresponsible risks,” in investing in U.S. subprime mortgages and ABN Amro, he said.

    RBS shares dropped as low as 10 pence and traded down 64.3 percent at 12.4 pence at 2:45 p.m. in London trading, their lowest value since at least September 1988.

    “The market is pricing in the risk of full nationalization for RBS,” said Sandy Chen, an analyst at Panmure Gordon & Co. who has a “sell” rating on the stock. “It’s not an RBS specific issue. The mixture of deflation and de-leveraging is toxic for bank shares.”

    ‘Full-scale Nationalization’

    Barclays Plc dropped 9 percent to 89 pence. Lloyds Banking Group Plc dropped almost 30 percent to 68.9 pence, as the bank said it still plans to repay the government’s preference shares by the end of the year.

    “Full-scale nationalization” is the most likely next step for RBS “if the latest initiative proves insufficient,” Nomura analysts Robert Law and Raul Sinha said in a note to clients today. The bank may be forced to raise more cash from investors, diluting existing shareholders’ stakes, until the full scale of credit losses is known, they added.

    Chief Executive Officer Fred Goodwin spent almost $90 billion on takeovers after he became CEO in 2000, culminating in his 14.3 billion-euro ($19 billion) acquisition of ABN Amro in 2007. Goodwin was ousted in October after the government agreed to take control of the 282-year-old Scottish lender.

    “The previous management made this disastrous acquisition of Dutch bank ABN,” Darling told BBC Radio 4 today.

    ‘Truly Horrible’

    “The numbers are truly horrible,” said Robert Talbut, who helps manage about $31 billion at Royal London Asset Management. “The government is very clearly in the driving seat, and I would expect RBS to shrink back to being a more U.K.-focused bank.”

    RBS said it expects to post 8 billion pounds of credit market writedowns for the full year, boosted by losses on U.S. collateralized debt obligations. Credit impairment losses may total as much as a further 7 billion pounds, including a 1 billion-pound loss on its loan to bankrupt chemical maker Lyondell Chemical Co.

    “We can all be sure there will be further significant credit losses, but we can’t be sure of what amount and what timing,” Stephen Hester, who replaced Goodwin as CEO, told reporters on a conference call today. “Significant uncertainties and risks inevitably remain.”

    RBS issued its statement on the same day that the Bank of England announced measures worth an additional 100 billion pounds to help banks access liquidity and boost lending. The package is in addition to the 250 billion pounds Gordon Brown committed in October.

    ‘Restructure and Retrench’

    The bank will cut lending in international markets which saw “most of the excess balance sheet expansion” under Goodwin, Hester said today. “We are going to restructure and retrench to our most valuable customer franchise business,” in the U.K.

    Royal Bank of Scotland plans to replace the U.K. Treasury’s preference shares, which carry a dividend, with ordinary stock. RBS shareholders will be offered 5 billion pounds of shares for 31.75 pence apiece, the bank said. If shareholders fail to take up their rights, the government’s stake in the bank will increase to 70 percent from 58 percent.

    Lloyds, the U.K.’s biggest mortgage lender, said today it would stick with its plan to repay the government’s 4 billion pounds of preference shares by the end of the year. Lloyds may be doing so to avoid following RBS into government control, Simon Willis, an analyst for U.K. financial stocks at NCB Stockbrokers Ltd. in London, said in a telephone interview today.

    “They are resisting for as long as they can, but I suspect in due course will be majority government-owned due to rising bad debts on the back of a deterioration in the U.K. economy,” Willis said.

    RBS said today it would use the money saved by eliminating the dividends on the preference stock to boost U.K. lending by 6 billion pounds. Increased lending to U.K. customers will only be on “commercial terms and to creditworthy people,” Hester said.


    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...REY&refer=home
    *****************************
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  • #2
    bro...

    i'm just wondering.... if the RBS wld go bust (if that is possible at all).... what wld happen to outstanding loans.... and also savings (in forms of bonds or cash) in these accounts....?
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    • #3
      If RBS go bust, investors and depositors lose everything. unless there is the FDIC Deposit Insurance. Even that has a limit. That's why I think there will be a bank run on all these stupid banks and people will start to have their milo-tin/under the pillow mentality.
      "Focusing your life solely on making a buck shows a poverty of ambition. It asks too little of yourself. And it will leave you unfulfilled."

      "Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek."

      "If we aren't willing to pay a price for our values, then we should ask ourselves whether we truly believe in them at all."


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      • #4
        The numbers are unreal...
        The ArmchairEconomist

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        • #5
          Originally posted by ricnas1 View Post
          bro...

          i'm just wondering.... if the RBS wld go bust (if that is possible at all).... what wld happen to outstanding loans.... and also savings (in forms of bonds or cash) in these accounts....?
          They can go bust but I doubt the BoE will sit idly to let them die. The consequences will be pretty dire. Might just trigger bank runs and that is probably one of the last thing anyone wants now.

          But if they are allowed to go bust, then yeah, savings are protected by the government guidelines but all investments such as funds and I believe bonds as well will be gone...
          Time is too precious to be measured by a cheap watch...

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          • #6
            Originally posted by chongj88 View Post
            They can go bust but I doubt the BoE will sit idly to let them die. The consequences will be pretty dire. Might just trigger bank runs and that is probably one of the last thing anyone wants now.

            But if they are allowed to go bust, then yeah, savings are protected by the government guidelines but all investments such as funds and I believe bonds as well will be gone...

            thks for the explanation.. tried looking abt this myself but so many jargon... i decided to ask here instead...

            so something like the Barrings Bank years ago.. all investors money plus life savings wl be gone? wl the local government allow that to happen? or does it mean the govt of scotland wl take over the bank... means become more government owned than private?
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            • #7
              Originally posted by ricnas1 View Post
              thks for the explanation.. tried looking abt this myself but so many jargon... i decided to ask here instead...

              so something like the Barrings Bank years ago.. all investors money plus life savings wl be gone? wl the local government allow that to happen? or does it mean the govt of scotland wl take over the bank... means become more government owned than private?
              I'm no expert in this so anyone can feel free to jump in.

              Based on what I know of Barings, it was an investment bank. Hence none of the funds they have are protected/insured. Just like Lehman Brothers. Hence when Lehman went bankrupt, all their creditors and customers have to queue up to wait for money. In all likelihood, their customers will not get anything back after creditors are paid... Even then, it is a long process...

              So going back to RBS, yes, it is likely that the government may take control. Just like what happened with AIG and now rumors that Barclays may go the same way. And if they are nationalized, the banks will have no choice but to start trimming away to ensure loans from the government (ie tax payers) are paid. It usually means breaking up and downsizing - just like what AIG is going through now. Its almost analagous to an overweight person going for a drastic diet to get back into shape.
              Time is too precious to be measured by a cheap watch...

              Patek 5065, Rolex 16600, 16700, 16710, IWC 3786, JLC Reverso Chrono, PAM 190G, PAM 219I, AP RO Chrono

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