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  • Discussion : Singapore Property

    Saw this news on the wire... look like market will be bad for the next few quarters.

    here's the full story:


    By Chen Shiyin
    Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore’s fourth-quarter private
    home prices declined 5.7 percent, the steepest drop in a decade,
    as the global financial crisis and an economic recession
    deterred buyers.
    The price index of private residential property fell to
    163.4 points in the three months ended Dec. 31, from 173.30 in
    the previous quarter, the Urban Redevelopment Authority said in
    a statement on its Web site today. That’s the largest drop since
    the three months ended Dec. 31, 1998, according to data tracked
    by Bloomberg.
    Home prices have retreated for two straight quarters,
    ending a four-year rally. The island-state said today its
    economy may shrink by as much as 2 percent this year, the first
    contraction since 2001, amid the worsening global recession.
    Prices for apartments in the so-called core central area
    dropped 6.3 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31 and
    slipped 5.5 percent elsewhere in central Singapore, according to
    the Urban Redevelopment Authority. They fell 4.7 percent across
    other parts of the island, today’s report showed.
    Today’s data is based on transactions in the first 10 weeks
    of the quarter, the government agency said. It will provide an
    update in four weeks.
    CapitaLand Ltd., Southeast Asia’s largest developer, rose
    3.9 percent to S$3.23 at the 12:30 p.m. break in Singapore
    trading. The shares dropped 50 percent last year, its largest
    loss on record.
    City Developments Ltd., Singapore’s second-largest real
    estate company, added 3.5 percent to S$6.59. Keppel Land Ltd.,
    the third-biggest, climbed 2.9 percent to S$1.75.
    The government agency said on Dec. 19 about 10,450
    unfinished homes were sold under a deferred mortgage plan that
    allowed buyers to postpone taking out loans equivalent to as
    much as 90 percent of the property values until they were
    completed.
    Some of those homes may be at risk of default or so-called
    distressed sales if prices decline further, analysts at
    brokerages including CLSA Ltd. have said.
    30
    yes
    46.67%
    14
    no
    53.33%
    16

    The poll is expired.

    Last edited by ohlins; 02-01-09, 02:05 PM.

  • #2
    Of course lah, build so many, who will stay??

    Comment


    • #3
      Buying Opportunity! Waiting for FIRE SALE

      Comment


      • #4
        I'm seeing it differently. The condo market may drop to the bottom within the next 2 quarters and rebounds.

        I'm eyeing at the few projects near redhill MRT area.

        Above just my POV.
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        • #5
          IMO: It will not be good for year 2009, unless garment do some drastic measures. I think the garment will let the market do its own adjustment. It may take many years to reach its last peak again.

          Comment


          • #6
            Singapore Property

            With the recent economy downturn, how many of you are in the market to BUY / SELL your property???

            Personally, I feel that the market is not at the lowest yet and can wait till the end of the year....

            I've talked to over a dozen of agents... Many still in denial that the property prices would drop further.. definitely marketing talk imho as they hope to close the deal.. SOME really desprate and keep calling me to make an offer... Keep comparing our current economy with 2003 SARS period.. that it won't dip further....
            BUT the situation now is not what happened in 2003 where its an Asia downturn.. this is a global downturn, more servere than 1996/7 Asia financial crisis. Hence we are definitely not at the lowest in my personal judgement..

            Yes I am shopping around but am waiting for the rightful time to pull the trigger...

            What are your views and thoughts???

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            • #7
              Originally posted by jazz_samz View Post
              With the recent economy downturn, how many of you are in the market to BUY / SELL your property???

              Personally, I feel that the market is not at the lowest yet and can wait till the end of the year....

              I've talked to over a dozen of agents... Many still in denial that the property prices would drop further.. definitely marketing talk imho as they hope to close the deal.. SOME really desprate and keep calling me to make an offer... Keep comparing our current economy with 2003 SARS period.. that it won't dip further....
              BUT the situation now is not what happened in 2003 where its an Asia downturn.. this is a global downturn, more servere than 1996/7 Asia financial crisis. Hence we are definitely not at the lowest in my personal judgement..

              Yes I am shopping around but am waiting for the rightful time to pull the trigger...

              What are your views and thoughts???

              There is a strong correlation between property prices and income level. It has been said that a rise in income will lead to a disproportionately higher rise in demand for property. The inverse in also true. Therefore, one can expect
              prices to fall until income trends are corrected.

              There is an investment rule of thumb to leave the last 10% to someone else.
              So buy only when property prices are no longer falling but are rising.

              Comment


              • #8
                It will come down further. Too many projects are in the pipeline. For good locations, developers don't want to lose money. They spent a fortune to do en bloc. Their calculation is simple: Price = costs of en bloc + construction costs + earning. Unfortunately market doesnt accept 'cost plus' mechanism. It would be too expensive for buyers = low sales = less cash in = cash flow problem for small developers. Once they are hit with cash flow issue, no other choice but to sell the assets at lost for liquidity purpose.

                Ideally as buyer, we could catch those desparate developers. But for projects that are still not yet started, beware that weak developers may go bankrupt. Strong developers may choose to hold on their pricing and expect market to recover once their projects are finished, let say in 2 years time from now. But this is also speculative and assume market will recover by then.
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                • #9
                  Yes, you're right. The property market is far worst than what it seems right now. There are too many TOPs this year and next year and the following year. With the economy downturn, much lesser expats will come to Singapore and not talking about those who left and about to leave soon. All the bad news of property market is not released yet and once it is out to the public, the market will crash... very sad...

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Yes you're right. Those with holding power will stay in the market. I am not too worry about developers sell their units cheap cheap as normally they don't.

                    What I am worried is foreigners give up on SG property market and start damping their stocks and shift to places like HK, Jp, shanghai, etc... In this case, price will for sure drop like crazy....



                    Originally posted by Hary View Post
                    It will come down further. Too many projects are in the pipeline. For good locations, developers don't want to lose money. They spent a fortune to do en bloc. Their calculation is simple: Price = costs of en bloc + construction costs + earning. Unfortunately market doesnt accept 'cost plus' mechanism. It would be too expensive for buyers = low sales = less cash in = cash flow problem for small developers. Once they are hit with cash flow issue, no other choice but to sell the assets at lost for liquidity purpose.

                    Ideally as buyer, we could catch those desparate developers. But for projects that are still not yet started, beware that weak developers may go bankrupt. Strong developers may choose to hold on their pricing and expect market to recover once their projects are finished, let say in 2 years time from now. But this is also speculative and assume market will recover by then.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      it be good for the over inflated housing prices to crash...can pick up some good bargains along the way....
                      Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak

                      Courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen

                      Quoted from Sir Winston Churchill

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                      • #12
                        Correct! But don't expect to profit in short-term.....

                        Originally posted by feilong108 View Post
                        it be good for the over inflated housing prices to crash...can pick up some good bargains along the way....

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          erm..it b great for fellow singaporeans to buy their dream house if the prices are low...i dun mind the prices to crash though...haha..perfect time to grab my dream house...
                          Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak

                          Courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen

                          Quoted from Sir Winston Churchill

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by feilong108 View Post
                            erm..it b great for fellow singaporeans to buy their dream house if the prices are low...i dun mind the prices to crash though...haha..perfect time to grab my dream house...

                            When the prices fall drastically, it's about uncertain times. This translates to uncertainty about our jobs, and if we own a biz, uncertainty about remaining
                            profitable. The grabbing part becomes difficult then.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              mate, dun be too concerned about prices moving higher or lower. in many mature markets, its all about credit and affordability,measured by target market segment eg 2 roomer dist 9 or 10, average transacted price over average annual income, denominated by years.

                              also take note of rental yield spread over 2 things, use HDB bonds and housing loan rates. in the case of the latter, once it goes par or negative in a targeted segment, eg 3 roomer in dist 15, over 2 quarters, then game over for that sector, move on. however, data can be skewed esp studios and lofts.


                              alot of people will talk about macro economic environment etc etc. dun bother....when the economic reality turns for the better, or worse, it is already too late, you would have gotten out too early or gotten in too late.

                              alot of people will also tell you horror stories, about freinds and relatives over extending themselves by investing in properties; or bulllish tales about how their colleague make a killing buying several units at pre-launch etc etc.....again, dun bother, noise from the market place will just either entice you or panic you.


                              ask yourself, why property?? why not something else. i suugest you look at property counters, if you are afraid to lose upside momentum. citidev always leading indicater for upswings. buy it as a hedge. from 1997/98 to 2007/08, 10 year cycle...u go check citydev price....low of 3ish to high of 17ish(check yourselve, i cant remember the exact all time high and all time low....somply becoz i dun believe i can buy at bottom and sell on the top), that represents a return in % terms of 600% from low to peak. ask yourself, which physical asset gives you same return?? not including dividends(akin to rental....you can measure comparative yield) and importantly LIQUIDITY.

                              i suugest you buy property counters as a hedge against potential upswings, IF YOU BELIEVE PROPERTY PRICES HAVE BOTTOM. also can buy other counter like AllGreen, if you are buying cluster housings, wingtai for 99 leasehold exposures...alot of customized hedging by yourself.

                              only good thing about buying physical asset is the financing....80%, i.e. 400% leverage against your start capital, and loan at really low interest.


                              therefore, i recommend that YOU decide what sort of private dwelling you are looking at eg 99 leasehold suburban?? and buy a suitable property counter. leave it till YOU feel property cycle turning, go humbly to bank and secure bank financing BEFORE you buy(just ask with given income, and cash on hand, what sort of loan package can bank offer - you need not have selected a physical unit - do that and get a idea what you can be financed to buy and dun waste time), then do the deal and ride the cycle.


                              property cycles in singapore then to be Joseph cycle like - i.e. 7 years boom, 7 years bust. 1990 - 1997, 1997 to 2004. are we in a 3.5 yr cycle now??? 2004-2007.5, 2007.5-2011??

                              lastly, be diligent. not just reading about the property markets in newspapers and magazines or listen to peers and radio.....study price trend in selected developments. follow their rental yield. go down to every showroom opening. leave contacts with senior agents. collect every project brochure and store them for later references. attend auctions. buy the latest URA masterplan(if you r enbloc investor). even become part time agent to get inside track and for free subcription to URA and SISV data.


                              still feel like investing in property???
                              It is with our judgments as with our watches; no two go just alike, yet each believes his own.
                              Alexander Pope

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