Used Rolex Prices set to plummet after Japan Disaster....

[minimerc]

I agree too that luxury goods will not be adversely affected. Japan is not the economic power it used to be and doesn't contribute to the global GDP as it used to. Less than 7% or even 5% I think. This disaster is just a short disruption of the normal global trade and capital flows.

Currently, the financial markets are trading largely on fear. With global catastrophes, the markets are all usually affected on a short term basis before returning back to normality. However, with that unknown element of a nuclear disaster looming, it will just pro-long this fear. That's why I say that by 'plugging' this nuclear power station sooner is better for everyone.

Personally, I see this uncertain situation as an excellent buying opportunity into the global markets right now. (but not in jewellery)

japan's share of world's GDP was at 18% in the early to mid 90s, now dropped to <9% of world's GDP last year. japan lost its 2nd place to China last yr... Singapore's share of GDP, whilst impressive at per capita level, was ard 0.35% of world's GDP... honestly, the japanese spending power has gone down in last decade. as to the impact on local used watch mkt, who knows... perhaps prices will go higher as assets and rolexes alike all got buried under the debris....
actually, the softening of vintages rolex was probably due to influx of watches from US due to SGD strength and US economy weakness.... imho....

[gigantor]

japan's share of world's GDP was at 18% in the early to mid 90s, now dropped to <9% of world's GDP last year. japan lost its 2nd place to China last yr... Singapore's share of GDP, whilst impressive at per capita level, was ard 0.35% of world's GDP... honestly, the japanese spending power has gone down in last decade. as to the impact on local used watch mkt, who knows... perhaps prices will go higher as assets and rolexes alike all got buried under the debris....
actually, the softening of vintages rolex was probably due to influx of watches from US due to SGD strength and US economy weakness.... imho....

Even Japan had lose it place to china does not mean they have lost it spending power. It is still the top 3 super economic power in the world. Anything happen to it meant that it will have an impact in the global economic.

[minimerc]

i disagree with that statement. there are other instruments which are much safer, smaller loss, more portable and yet discreet.

afterall, how many watches can you physically bring offshore to sell to raise enough money to start a new life (and who is rich enough to buy so many pieces from you?)

...

just for academic discussion: what are the possible assets u can bring out of a country? diamonds, no. gold bars, too heavy. cash, limited to 10k. treasury or share certs, all scriptsless now. bearer bonds... not sure. bank draft, maybe

watches, possible... remember that coritina or hour glass SA at rafflesCity who left for thailand with dozen of exp watches... liquidity of watches is an issue though...

[Archie42]

Just how bad is the Japanese Nuclear situation???

Don't take my word for it.... Take the word of the highly respected ABC 4 Corners program....http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/speci...0110321/japan/

Japan government and the Tokyo Power Plant owners have been "GREATLY HIDING THE TRUTH AND NOT REVEALING THE TRUE EXTENT OF THE DISASTER!"

Did you know the Nuclear power plant is a RIGHTOUT after pumping in seawater?
Did you know the Nuclear power plant in question has 98 tonnes of uranian to deal with?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...21/3168926.htm

[minimerc]

Just how bad is the Japanese Nuclear situation???

Don't take my word for it.... Take the word of the highly respected ABC 4 Corners program....http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/speci...0110321/japan/

Japan government and the Tokyo Power Plant owners have been "GREATLY HIDING THE TRUTH AND NOT REVEALING THE TRUE EXTENT OF THE DISASTER!"

Did you know the Nuclear power plant is a RIGHTOUT after pumping in seawater?
Did you know the Nuclear power plant in question has 98 tonnes of uranian to deal with?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...21/3168926.htm

when was the last time we see japanese make full disclosure? everything was secret until old news. the day before any Jap banks goes bust, the CEO would assure mkt no prob, very similar to lehman huh? cfo and CEo franticaly calling all counterpartys assuring them of financial strength, only to go bust on Sunday night. at least the japanese still bother to to bow and cry at press conference the following day post bankruptcy... the americans? countersue ppl who sued them.

[minimerc]

watch out for nikkei tom till rest of week. may reverse trend soon.

[taxico]

...

just for academic discussion: what are the possible assets u can bring out of a country? diamonds, no. gold bars, too heavy. cash, limited to 10k. treasury or share certs, all scriptsless now. bearer bonds... not sure. bank draft, maybe

watches, possible... remember that coritina or hour glass SA at rafflesCity who left for thailand with dozen of exp watches... liquidity of watches is an issue though...

i guess what i meant to say was: it is not practical to bring luxury watches to another country for the purpose of selling them to start a new life. if it were possible, the (ex-)staff from cortina would not be in jail right now...

non US-issued (unrated) bearer bonds of some sort (gold? debt?) would probably be easiest... but for me?

i'd just maintain an account with a reputable bank and use a debit card...

there're other more interesting ways to move money around the world (especially to singapore), but i'm on the fringe of promoting unconventional money transfers... so i'll stop here.

[minimerc]

interesting! thanks taxico!