Used Rolex Prices set to plummet after Japan Disaster....

[Archie42]

Hello,
I have some very interesting news by way of a watch dealer who goes to Japan every 4 weeks to buy/sell.

Japan is a complete disaster - 70% of trains are not running, business is a disaster. People are NOT buying watches. The business community is frozen. Nothing is happening. People are holding onto money and getting out of Tokyo.

He has told me prices are down 30-40% on used pieces. Hard to sell pieces like OysterDate, OysterQuartz, Plastic Date/DateJust are down 50%

Expect HUGE savings to begin in Sinagpore as this disaster turns into an Asian meltdown. Expect prices to fall in Singapore within the next 3 weeks!

Singapore dealers will pretend to put a brave face on (like an ostrich with its head in the sand) but the truth is so serious it is not funny.

[Ian Limm]

The best indication of the financial status of all economies imo is the stock market.
Past week Dow , STI and the rest had wild swings down then rebound and next ...?

The reaction of local dealers will not be immediate, they have to see the meltdown (if it happens) first before they cut prices, same as the 2008 meltdown.

[Iceheller]

The best indication of the financial status of all economies imo is the stock market.
Past week Dow , STI and the rest had wild swings down then rebound and next ...?

The reaction of local dealers will not be immediate, they have to see the meltdown (if it happens) first before they cut prices, same as the 2008 meltdown.

Did you meant to say that luxury watch maker allows the dealer to cut the price of the watches during finanical meltdown? I would assume it would happen on those tourby, blink blink, MR and PC models but not on the basic model. Or they produce more affordable watch models during bad times and sell it to dealer. I have yet to see watch company or dealer dropping the prices for their normal watch for the past decade. What I see and ask around is price freeze for basic model with no complication. But I may be a frog in the well here.

[kenlinliu1419]

If the Japanese' Plan A which is to supply water back to the reactor this weekend works, then everything will be on the mend.
If not, then I heard that they have to resort to Plan B (the final resort) and bury all the reactor cores in concrete! If that happens, then yes, I believe the whole financial market will remain jittery. (which translates into a great buying opportunity!)

[gigantor]

If the Japanese' Plan A which is to supply water back to the reactor this weekend works, then everything will be on the mend.
If not, then I heard that they have to resort to Plan B (the final resort) and bury all the reactor cores in concrete! If that happens, then yes, I believe the whole financial market will remain jittery. (which translates into a great buying opportunity!)

Regardless whether the nuclear meltdown happen or not, the Japan economic is hurt and this will lead to some global impact. Expected to have a slow down demand in luxury items.

[Darkangel]

Did you meant to say that luxury watch maker allows the dealer to cut the price of the watches during finanical meltdown? I would assume it would happen on those tourby, blink blink, MR and PC models but not on the basic model. Or they produce more affordable watch models during bad times and sell it to dealer. I have yet to see watch company or dealer dropping the prices for their normal watch for the past decade. What I see and ask around is price freeze for basic model with no complication. But I may be a frog in the well here.

I think he's talking about preowned prices dropping not brand new.

[Darkangel]

Hello,
I have some very interesting news by way of a watch dealer who goes to Japan every 4 weeks to buy/sell.

Japan is a complete disaster - 70% of trains are not running, business is a disaster. People are NOT buying watches. The business community is frozen. Nothing is happening. People are holding onto money and getting out of Tokyo.

He has told me prices are down 30-40% on used pieces. Hard to sell pieces like OysterDate, OysterQuartz, Plastic Date/DateJust are down 50%

Expect HUGE savings to begin in Sinagpore as this disaster turns into an Asian meltdown. Expect prices to fall in Singapore within the next 3 weeks!

Singapore dealers will pretend to put a brave face on (like an ostrich with its head in the sand) but the truth is so serious it is not funny.

I believe that it's true the Japanese are selling off their goods and definitely some will float to the shores of SG. I am expecting prices to soften but not much because retailers(mostly) can still hold on to their pricing.

Prices will drop (drastically), only when the retailers are holding too many stock (which they got cheap from jp) and local buyers are not buying them.

For them buying cheap, is one thing...but if they can't sell then they are forced to lower prices, is another thing.

[Iceheller]

I personally dun think watch price would go down. In fact in may rise like nobody business. Look at our neighboring country for example, when Indonesia was hit by the internal and Asian financial crisis, all the rich chinese whom half of them cant really speak mandarin but rather dialect, scramble out of their country to neighbouring countries like Singapore and etc. They can't bring their farrari or Lamborghini and their bank account back home is frozen. Without much cash on them, what can they do? They endup disposing their "priced" watch in Singapore and etc at a lost. But the sum is still substaintial. So watch can become a safe heaven for the rich in crisis and thar why swiss watch companies keep pushing the price ceiling for their watches. Unless the world goes into prolong crisis, if not, the reverse in watch prices is unlikely. The last credit crisis mostly affect US linked countries like singapore and etc. It caused a bit spillover to Europe. So it is not a global crisis.

Most non-AD, which i think, operate on a hit and run business model. To cut down their lost, they just drop prices if those watches like rolex where they overly "collected".

Which they "collect" too much to cut their lost.

[Ian Limm]

In short,I dont think prices will come down.
here in singapore, so many cash rich people both local and foreign , all buying non stop brand new and 2nd hand rollies so the cash registers of local dealers will continue to ring!

[kenlinliu1419]

I agree too that luxury goods will not be adversely affected. Japan is not the economic power it used to be and doesn't contribute to the global GDP as it used to. Less than 7% or even 5% I think. This disaster is just a short disruption of the normal global trade and capital flows.

Currently, the financial markets are trading largely on fear. With global catastrophes, the markets are all usually affected on a short term basis before returning back to normality. However, with that unknown element of a nuclear disaster looming, it will just pro-long this fear. That's why I say that by 'plugging' this nuclear power station sooner is better for everyone.

Personally, I see this uncertain situation as an excellent buying opportunity into the global markets right now. (but not in jewellery)

[Iceheller]

I think I am off-topic here, But Hehehehe

Well dun write out japan just as yet. They may not be top two Economic power houses(US and China) but they are still in the Ivy league of world economies (too lazy to provide any figure for their contribution).

Just my $2, here. If they fall, US might be affected as the Japs brought and owns tons of lands, buildings and Inc in US and some countries (which i cannot really recalled now) when they become a super powerhouse in the 70-80's. If they haven't sell all these foreign assets all this years, they might start selling now. So that they can fund their own crisis and these might lead to a sellout at lost by most investors/institutions(yet another hit and run). This in term, would cost US asset prices to drop. By then, China or even Singapore would then begin to feel the pinch since all their "national investment fund Incs" just did some major shopping spree in US during and after the recent credit crisis.

I bet the half white and black hair "Dr T" is going to make some speech about the world economic again... And yes, let alone the nuclear crisis.

[triton]

preown watches has already soften quite a fair bit. i don't think they will drop much unless supply exceed demand. but over the past few months, ADs and preown don't have interesting sales figures.

i dont have figures to support my claim. but look @ the discount AD were offering. though it is rumoured that discount is being cut. when the sales staff can't meet sales figures, they would have to offer discount to entice customers.

as for preown pieces, i use the garage section as a guide.

as couple of the fellow members pointed out. the price will soften further will not be immediate.

what is hurting japan now is the nuclear crisis. not the earthquake, tsunami issue. there is always knee jerk responses from other countries.

financial market in sg is lower despite other countries moving up marginally on friday. i would rather say. let's not jump the gun and expect goodies to drop from sky.

wait for the watches to come to you. not going after them.

[KuchingKu]

If prices come down for vintage rolex, then the same for pams and pateks and APs too cos the used shops in japan holds lots of these. May be a good time for some to get the elusive rare piece.

My guess is prices will soften a little. Even when the economy rebounded in 2010, pre own prices still hold flat after dropping from highs. The highs of 2007 is a distant past but current prices are steady and sustainable. The 2007 inflated prices are past.

[taxico]

this thread is like one of the many text messages i got about staying indoors and avoiding the rain...!

[taxico]

...So watch can become a safe heaven for the rich in crisis and...

i disagree with that statement. there are other instruments which are much safer, smaller loss, more portable and yet discreet.

afterall, how many watches can you physically bring offshore to sell to raise enough money to start a new life (and who is rich enough to buy so many pieces from you?)